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The decision model shows that if the people around you are indecisive, you will not be able to make up your mind

The decision model shows that if the people around you are indecisive, you will not be able to make up your mind


On Tuesday, Democratic voters from Colorado and across the us will face a significant decision: Sanders or Warren? Biden, Klobuchar or Bloomberg? Then, what kind of wine?

Now, some people use mathematical tools to analyze the various difficulties that humans face when they make choices, especially in a noisy social environment. People who only exist in hypotheses and completely rational people can also be trapped between the 2 choices.

Researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder and the University of Houston report that “unable to make” choices are sometimes as suggestive as “picky.” For example, when people around you play chess irregularly, you will also find it difficult to make up your mind.

Kilpatrick was supposed to present the team's findings via remote video at a meeting of the American Physical Society. The meeting has now been cancelled due to public health issues.

He said that although the results are only theoretical, they can provide us with a reference when facing real problems.

Terrible decision

Research involves a major problem in a research area called decision theory: how people make choices based on their personal experience and common sense, such as watching television debates and social interactions.

Kilpatrick compares it to the classic wit of Vizzini and Dread Pirate Roberts in the 1987 movie Princess Bride.

In that scene, the pirate and Vizini are sitting opposite each other with a glass of wine in front of each other. The pirate claims that one glass is poisonous. Vizini can choose a cup first-swap his cup with the pirate, or leave it as it is-the pirate picks up the other cup and both drink at the same time.
Before making a decision, Vizini uses dialogue and insight to get information. For example, he first claimed that a decent pirate would not poison a guest's cup and test the pirate's response; while the pirate said that a smart person would not poison his own cup. So many rounds of confrontation.

In other words, when we are in a similar situation, we must not only consider what we know about our opponents, but also constantly consider what our opponents know about us.

To explore similar intellectual circles, Kilpatrick and colleagues used a series of equations or mathematical models to simulate social interactions of varying complexity. Their model is not around actual voters or even pirates, but "rational agents"-theoretical decision makers, who always make correct corrections based on the information available.

Researchers have found that when time is of the essence, two fictional rational people may experience a psychological cycle similar to the process of Wizini's speculation.

Kilpatrick said that For example, we are both watching an equivalent news show , and that we will check out each other-whether you've got come to any conclusions. We have to think again and again from 'you have not made a decision, and I The fact that no decision was made 'has fully extracted all the information. 

Messy human

Kilpatrick has certainly noticed that no one is completely rational. However, scientists can still study things in reality through ideal models.

He added that people should also always try to be aware of the burden on others in social networks.

When we need a decision, we should seriously consider the personal views of those people in order to figure out their starting point, said Jill Patrick.

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