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Reuters: Researchers warn that sequelae may cause disaster for new crown virus

Reuters: Researchers warn that sequela may cause disaster for new crown virus


As the government scrambles to stop the spread of corona virus by closing schools, businesses, and travels like never before, some experts worry that a sluggish economy and closed society will have long-term effects on public health.

This is the biggest government intervention in our lives since the Second World War. In order to resist the outbreak of corona virus, governments around the world have closed schools, travel and businesses. Many observers are concerned about the economic cost of leaving millions of people unemployed and millions of students dropping out of school.

Now, three weeks after the U.S. and other countries have taken comprehensive bans that may last for months or more, some public health experts are exploring another consequence of large-scale closures: thousands of potentially increased deaths may Will have nothing to do with the disease itself.

History shows that the longer the ban lasts, the more severe this consequence will be. The researchers found that the surge in unemployment in 1982 shortened the overall life expectancy of Americans by two to three million years. During the last recession between 2007 and 2009, the depression in the job market prompted the suicide rate in the United States and Europe to soar, killing people by 10,000 more than before the recession. This time, if, as many business and political leaders have warned, the economy collapses and the unemployment rate soars to historical levels, then this effect will become more severe in the coming weeks, months, and even years.

There have been reports that isolation measures are causing more domestic violence in certain areas. Prolonged school suspensions will prevent children with special needs from being treated and may indicate an increase in dropout rates and violations. The public health center will lose funds, resulting in reduced services and reduced community health. The unemployment rate has surged to 20% (this statement is currently common in Western economies), which may result in another 20,000 suicides among people who are unemployed in Europe or the United States or enter a non-existent job market.

None of this is to downplay the number of deaths that the new corona virus may cause, nor does it suggest that the government should not actively respond to this crisis.

The economic depression is fatal to people, especially the poor, said Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a health policy researcher at Stanford University.

A recent report by researchers at Imperial College London has helped drive the global blockade. They believe that unless the government quickly takes severe social alienation measures, the corona virus may kill 2 million Americans and 500,000 Britons. The report says that to really work, the blockade may need to continue (repeatedly) for up to 18 months.

In the United States, the White House said this week that the final death toll may rise to 240,000. Countries have responded to severe warnings and the increasing number of cases each day, by extending the time at home.

The medical struggle against corona virus has grown rapidly, and no one knows what role it will play or what the final number of casualties will be. But the researchers say that history shows that the response to deep and long-term economic shocks and social alienation itself will have short-, medium- and long-term effects on health.

Here are some examples.
Domestic violence


Katie Ray-Jones, chief executive of the National Domestic Violence Hotline, said some domestic violence victims were trapped in their homes with the abusers. They have suffered more frequent and extreme violence.

According to reports, from Cincinnati to Nashville, Portland, Salt Lake City, and the entire state of Virginia and Arizona, calls for help received from domestic violence programs across the country have increased. In another example, the Young Women ’s Christian Association of Northern New Jersey told Reuters that its domestic violence calls rose by 24%.

Ray-Jones said that Some special populations will be affected far more than the new corona virus, he refers to victims of domestic violence.

Vulnerable student population


With the closure of schools across the country and the beginning of online learning, students, parents and teachers all face the challenge of adapting to distance learning.

Some experts worry that students at home, especially those living in unstable environments or in poverty, will miss more homework. According to a report by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, high school students who are absent from school for at least three days a month are 7 times more likely to drop out before graduation, so they live less than their peers 9 years.

The most vulnerable people include more than 6 million special education students across the United States. Without strict education and treatment, these students will face lifelong challenges.

Sharon Vaughn, executive director of the University of Texas , Medos Preventive Education Risk Center, said students with special needs benefit the most from highly structured and customized special education,  This means that they are the group most likely to be significantly affected by short-term and long-term absence from school. 

In New Jersey, Megan ’s Megan Gutierrez was unable to withstand the teaching and treatment of two nonverbal autistic sons (eight and ten). She worried that the sons of regular therapists and teachers would regress. Gutierrez said: For me, it is very important to maintain those communication skills, because if they do not do so, it may cause behavior problems and make them frustrated because they can not communicate.
Suicide rate soars

According to research published by lead author Aaron Reeves of Oxford University, in Europe and the United States, for every percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, the suicide rate will rise by about 1%. During the last recession, when the unemployment rate in the United States peaked at 10%, the suicide rate soared, leading to an increase of 4,750 deaths. If the unemployment rate rises to 20%, the number of casualties is likely to rise.

Reeves told Reuters that Sadly, I think the suicide rate is likely to be twice that of the beginning of the last recession in the next 24 months. This is equivalent to the increased number of suicide deaths in the United States and Europe. About 20,000.

After the last recession, the number of suicides in the United States and Europe increased by 10,000.

Less than three weeks after the United States began to take extreme blockade measures, the number of unemployed people rose by nearly 10 million. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned that this ratio may reach 20%, while Fed economists predict that it will be as high as 32%. Europe faces an equally terrible forecast.

Some researchers warn that the suicide rate may not rise so high. Anne Case, who studies health economics at Princeton University, said that the traditional view is that more people will commit suicide when the unemployment rate soars. However, the community may unite nationwide to defeat the corona virus, so this ratio may not increase. Case, a health economics researcher at Princeton University, said that Even if there is no typical crisis, it is difficult to predict the occurrence of suicide.

Public health paralysis


The local health department runs a plan to treat chronic diseases such as diabetes. They also help prevent lead poisoning in childhood and stop the spread of flu, tuberculosis and rabies. Adriane Casalotti, the head of government affairs at the National Association of County and City Health Officials, a nonprofit organization, said that after a series of business failures, the severe loss of income from property and business taxes may cause these health problems The department was paralyzed.

After the 2008 recession, more than half of the budget cuts in the United States caused the local health department to lose 23,000 jobs. Casalotti said that although it is generally believed that economic importance should not be placed on health, at the forefront of public health, there is an inseparable link between the two. What if you have no taxes to rely on?

Carol Moehrle, the head of the public health department serving five counties in northern Idaho, said that during the last recession, her office lost 40 of the 90 employees. The department had to chop a birth control plan, which provided contraception measures for ladies below the poverty level and tested and treated sexually transmitted diseases. She is worried that depression will cause more harm.

Morlai said that To be honest, I don't think we will become leaner on the one hand, but still be able to survive on the one hand. I feel terrified at this.


Unemployment rate


During the Great Depression, the rise in the number of unemployed people may trigger a domino effect of lower incomes, increased pressure, and poor lifestyles. Till von Wachter, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, studies the effects of unemployment. He said that these setbacks in income and health usually meant that people died earlier. Wacht) said his research on the surge in unemployment in the past showed that displaced workers may lose an average of one and a half years. If the unemployment rate rises to 20%, it may mean a loss of 48 million years of life.

He cited measures that he believed could reduce the impact of unemployment. The White House approved the Corona virus Assistance, Relief and Economic Security Act last week, which includes providing emergency loans to businesses and a short-term compensation plan that encourages employers to keep employees on payroll.

Young people suffer

In the long run, young people who enter the work market during the corona virus blockade may pay a particularly high price.

First-time job seekers looking for work during periods of high unemployment have a shorter life span and are unhealthy. Northwestern University health economics researcher Hannes Schwandt (Hannes Schwandt) said that a long-term economic freeze may shorten the life expectancy of 6.4 million Americans entering the job market by about two years on average. This will cost 12.8 million years of life.

When global business freezes, tens of thousands of college graduates will enter the job market. Jason Gustave (Jason Gustave) is a senior student at William Paterson University in New Jersey. He will be the first person in his family to graduate from college and has found a job as a therapist. However, his license exam has now been postponed, and the earliest time he can go to work is September.

He said that It all depends on the direction of economic development.Is this post still available?

In the next few weeks, the degree of destruction of the disease will become our focus, and governments and health experts from various countries will assess the number of deaths based on stronger facts.

Some public health experts say that when doing so, the government should weigh the cost of the suppression measures that have been taken and consider recalibrating if necessary.

Dr. Jay Batachaia, who studies health policy at Stanford University, said he is concerned that governments around the world have not fully considered the long-term impact of the upcoming economic disaster on health. He said that coronavirus can kill people, but global depression can also kill people. Batacaya urged government leaders to carefully consider the complete closure of businesses and schools.

He said that Depression is fatal to people, especially the poor.

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