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U.S. model predicts worst case scenario for up to 240,000 deaths

U.S. model predicts worst case scenario for up to 240,000 deaths
How the American model to forecast the maximum 240,000 deaths worsening epidemic prevention



According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 22:00 local time on April 1 (10:00 Beijing time on April 2), more than 213,000 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and more than 4,700 deaths have occurred in the United States. The White House Coronavirus Response Working Group predicted on March 31 that even with existing interventions, the number of deaths from new coronary pneumonia in the United States may eventually be between 100,000 and 240,000. What does this forecast number indicate? Will things end up so bad?

  Several U.S. medical and epidemiological experts said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that this prediction is based on an analysis of the continued development of the United States epidemic and is similar to the conclusions of research models in other parts of the world. At the same time, this is the first time that the White House has officially announced the results of death cases, which shows that the US government has a clearer understanding of the severe situation of the rapid development of the epidemic.


  Deborah Burks, coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Response Working Group, demonstrated a data model chart at a daily outbreak briefing on March 31, estimating that the number of deaths from the new US Coronary Pneumonia epidemic will skyrocket in a few months and may reach 100,000 to 240,000. Burks and Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, both said the number was "very real" and needed to stay awake and ready.

  Models show that if Americans do not adhere to current guidelines for controlling the spread of the epidemic, the number of deaths could be higher than this prediction. If no action is taken, up to 2.2 million people in the United States will die from new coronary pneumonia. Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa in the United States, told Xinhua that this is the "worst case scenario" that can be predicted, but hopes that existing control measures will prevent the worst case scenario.

  Zhang Zuofeng, associate dean and professor of epidemiology at the University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, told reporters that the forecast range announced by the White House is reasonable. However, the measures currently adopted in the United States are relatively effective. The morbidity and mortality rate may be lower than estimated, and the actual death cases may be less than 100,000.

  Zhang Zuofeng believes that because the U.S. government has extended the guidelines for the epidemic for another 30 days until the end of April, plus some states have implemented "home orders" and other measures, it is expected that the epidemic peak may also be delayed, and the U.S. medical system can Have more preparation time before it crashes.

  Kent Pinkerton, a professor at the University of California, Davis School of Medicine, told reporters that from the current measures implemented in the United States, the number of deaths may not reach the estimated level. However, there is still a long way to go to effectively control the development speed of the epidemic.

  Robert Redfield, director of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on March 30 that up to 25% of patients with new crown pneumonia in the United States have no symptoms and are an important reason for the epidemic to spread so quickly. Comes great challenge. The CDC is considering issuing guidelines specifically for wearing masks.

  So how do you prevent the worst scenario predicted by the United States from happening in the end?

  Burks said there was no panacea, no vaccine, no magical cure for the epidemic, and it was only everyone's action.

  "Continued efforts to expand social distance and maximize self-isolation measures are currently the most effective way to slow the spread of the epidemic," Perlman told Xinhua News Agency.

  At present, President Trump has extended the guidelines for maintaining social distance from April 12 to April 30, advising Americans to stop mass gatherings, work from home, and suspend unnecessary travel. More than 20 states have introduced epidemic prevention measures, such as the "home order", and some places have taken coercive measures to ensure that people comply with the directives.

  CNN statistics show that as of March 31, the "home order" issued by the US state, county, city and other levels of government has covered 262 million people, accounting for more than 80% of the US population.

  In addition, the U.S. government has vigorously promoted the development of related drugs and testing methods, increased the supply of masks, ventilators, protective clothing, etc., and has also urgently approved the supply of mask disinfection equipment to reuse existing masks and alleviate the shortage of protective equipment. .

  "If these prevention and control measures are not put in place, the United States will face worse outcomes than the model predicts," said Carl Berylstrom, a professor of biology at the University of Washington.

  Experts said that in addition to New York, New Jersey, California and other "heavy-hit areas" that deserve special attention and prevention, the epidemic situation in the Midwest and Southern states is not optimistic. In the future, the United States will continue to face major challenges in curbing the epidemic.

  Trump said on March 31 that the United States is about to face "extremely difficult" two weeks and urged the public to comply with the government's instructions to respond to the outbreak.

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